World Economic Fuck'em

What Do Bonds Know That The Stock Market Doesn't? Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Most investors spend their time watching the S&P 500. That’s a mistake, because the credit market is the real “tell.” The bond market has been whispering a warning for weeks now, and credit spreads are now shouting it. As of this writing, the CDX Index, a benchmark measure of credit default swap spreads, has climbed to a nine-month high while the S&P 500 sits within 5% of its all-time peak. Over the past 20 years, every time that...

Iran Mulls Hormuz Shipping Pause To Preserve Talks, Avoid Trump Blockade Showdown, As US Pushes 20-Year Nuclear Freeze Summary Diplomacy is not yet dead, as Bloomberg reports Iran is mulling a short-term pause to shipments through Hormuz Strait, in order to avoid a fresh clash with US forces & avoid testing Trump's blockade. Mediators are scrambling to put together another round of US-Iran talks in the coming days: Iran is reportedly offering a 5-year moratorium on nuclear program, while US demands 20. Saudis are among those calling for an end to the US...

Supertanker Rates Hit Six-Year High: Here's What Driving It Global very large crude carrier (VLCC) rates have jumped to six-year highs due to two recent catalysts: first, a growing war-risk premium tied to the possibility of a US-Iran conflict, and second, ongoing consolidation in fleet ownership that is tightening vessel availability. Let's begin by noting that war-risk insurance premiums are rapidly being priced into VLCC tanker rates. The Strait of Hormuz has once again come into focus as the world's most important energy chokepoint, where any flare-up in a US-Iran...