World Economic Fuck'em

Key Events This Holiday-Shortened Week: Payrolls, PMI, ISM, Retail Sales And Fed Speech Looking at the week ahead, we should start to learn about the economic consequences of the conflict, as several data releases for March are out which cover the period since the strikes began on February 28. In the US, that includes the monthly jobs report on Friday - which falls on a Holday when stocks are closed, while bonds are open for half a day -  where economists expect nonfarm payrolls to have risen by +60k in March. As...

Israeli Finance Minister's Son Wounded In Hezbollah Rocket Attack Via The Cradle At least eight Israeli soldiers were injured by Hezbollah rockets near the border with southern Lebanon on Friday, including the son of Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, according to Israeli media. The Lebanese resistance targeted Israeli troop gatherings on Friday. A rocket struck a group of soldiers, wounding eight, five of whom are in serious condition, according to Israel’s military. The Givati Brigade soldiers were transported to the hospital for treatment. Smotrich’s office released a statement saying his son was among the wounded...

Despite Crazy Revisions, Consumer Confidence Rebounds From January's Doom After Boomers and Gen X dragged The Conference Board Confidence measure down to eight month lows to end 2025, expectations were for a rebound to start 2026. Instead, January was a bloodbath with all the cohorts tumbling. Today sees February's data released with expectations for a rebound, particularly in expectations... and the consensus was right. The headline Consumer Confidence print rose from 84.5 (revised dramatically up to 89.0) to 91.2 (better than the 87.1 expected) Under the hood it was kind of crazy with the...