World Economic Fuck'em

A New Iran (Military?) Base Case By Michael Every of Rabobank Our central assumption for the Iran war had been that by end the third week of April at latest, the Iranian regime faction willing to make a deal in line with Trump’s tweets would have asserted itself over those who won’t, Hormuz would slowly reopen, and energy markets gradually normalise. As neither the Iranian nor US negotiating teams traveled to Pakistan for the second round of peace talks yesterday, that cannot happen. Our new geopolitical base case is of an extended...

This line of argument that we shouldn’t be afraid of Russia… Maybe someone also calls us a ‘paper tiger’, like Trump called NATO, but I would caution against such parallels. We have a quality in our character like patience. ‘God was patient and commanded us to be patient too’, but patience eventually runs out. And […]

Halliburton Sees First Signs Of Life In America's Oil Patch: "We Are In Early Innings" An emerging theme we are focusing on is the early stage of a major capex upcycle in America's oil patch, with even Goldman now moving in that direction and forecasting a boom that could echo the industry's expansion cycle of the early 2000s. Continental Resources CEO Doug Lawler was the first of the major oil patch players to mention in early April that "Continental is increasing our capital budget, which will increase production." Now, another giant...