Reckless Provocations w/Scott Horton

While the ceasefire that was extended last week in Lebanon continues to inexplicably be presented as “holding,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered substantial escalation in the Israeli military action in Lebanon’s south, and the amount of strikes seems to be growing substantially over the weekend. At least ten people have been confirmed killed over […]

ZeroHedge Fertilizer Debate: Hormuz Closure Could Usher In New Arab Spring  On Friday, ZeroHedge, in partnership with the Macro Dirt Podcast, hosted a debate focused on the implications for agriculture, inflation, and global supply chains given the current situation in Iran. The discussion was illuminating and worth a rewatch if you missed it.  The discussion featured former Bridgewater head of commodities Alex Campbell, Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital, and was hosted by Tony Greer and Jared Dillian. The Damage Has Been Done Even in a best case scenario where shipping lanes reopen immediately, Santiago...

Terrible 5Y Auction: Worst Bid To Cover In 4 Years, Highest Tail Since 2024, Dealers Jump Another day, another very ugly auction. After yesterday's appallingly bad 2Y auction, moments ago the Treasury sold $70BN in 5Y paper in what was another terrible auction. Just after 1pm, the auction stopped at a high yield of 3.966%, up from 3.608% in February and the highest since May 2025. It also tailed the When Issued 3.966% by 1.4bps, the biggest tail since Oct 2024. The bid to cover was 2.29, down from 2.32 last month and...