Half-Way Into Fiscal 2026, US Budget Deficit Is 11% Lower Than 2025, But It's About To Get Much Worse

"Bit Of Chaos": Hormuz Shuts Agains As Ships Make U-Turn The Trump administration’s "baffle 'em with bullshit" methodology has been on full display, as the reopening of the Hormuz chokepoint on Friday drove a broad risk-on in markets: US equities soared, crude collapsed, and Treasury yields declined, based on the assumption that disruption to global energy flows had eased. However, as of early Saturday morning, those moves may prove premature. The Wall Street Journal reports that the world’s most important maritime chokepoint is once again closed to commercial transit. About 20 ships...

Key Events This Holiday-Shortened Week: Payrolls, PMI, ISM, Retail Sales And Fed Speech Looking at the week ahead, we should start to learn about the economic consequences of the conflict, as several data releases for March are out which cover the period since the strikes began on February 28. In the US, that includes the monthly jobs report on Friday - which falls on a Holday when stocks are closed, while bonds are open for half a day -  where economists expect nonfarm payrolls to have risen by +60k in March. As...

Maersk Lifts Outlook As Wall Street Questions Whether Freight Tailwinds Can Last A.P. Moller-Maersk shares rose in Copenhagen trading after the world's second-largest container carrier surprised analysts by raising its full-year profit outlook, citing stronger-than-expected containerized demand, particularly across Asia. The upbeat guidance suggests the global container market has remained resilient despite earlier Hormuz-related chokepoint disruptions, with global shipping demand holding. The Danish shipping and logistics giant now expects global container volumes to grow about 4% this year, up from its prior forecast of 2% to 4%. It also lifted guidance...