The Strait Of Hormuz Crisis Exposes A Fatal Flaw In Economic Thinking

Off-Ramp In Progress? Israeli Media Signals 'Completion Phase' Of Iran War It's no secret that Washington is looking for an off-ramp amid what has been a steady pattern of escalation with Iran over the past month since Operation Epic Fury began. The White House's anticipated timeline and even list of objectives has seriously shifted since the war's start, as has the scope, given Tehran's 'unexpected' big retaliatory strikes on the Gulf and Israel - including on energy and infrastructure targets. It seems Trump was thinking Iran could be parallel to the...

The Passive Aggressive Market: Bogle's Warning Came True Authored by Michael Lebowitz via realinvestmentadvice.com, Since the pandemic, the line between passive investing and aggressive speculation has blurred. The current bout of speculative fervor extends beyond financial markets. For instance, we see the same impulse in the explosion of sports betting and the surge in event-betting sites like Kalshi and Polymarket. In the investment arena, margin debt is at record highs (as shown below), and zero-day-to-expiry (0DTE) stock options now account for approximately 50 percent of all options volume. Furthermore, the number of...

Hold The Horses By Rabobank There are five G10 central bank meetings scheduled this week and not a single policy move is expected between them. That said, the signalling of policymakers will be crucial. For each of the BoJ, Fed, BoC, ECB and the BoE, the market will be watching to see how rate setters are gauging the two sided the risks to growth and inflation implied by the Iran war. It remains Rabo’s view that the Fed will likely cut rates again this year. This outcome may have been made...