Good Intentions Paved The Road To The 2008 Financial Crisis

The Board of Peace said that the UN aid agency for Palestinians (UNRWA) can have no role in the future of Gaza.  “UNRWA has no place in the new Gaza,” the Board of Peace posted to X on Wednesday. “We are turning the page on the complex of perpetual aid dependency & conflict. The people […]

A New Iran (Military?) Base Case By Michael Every of Rabobank Our central assumption for the Iran war had been that by end the third week of April at latest, the Iranian regime faction willing to make a deal in line with Trump’s tweets would have asserted itself over those who won’t, Hormuz would slowly reopen, and energy markets gradually normalise. As neither the Iranian nor US negotiating teams traveled to Pakistan for the second round of peace talks yesterday, that cannot happen. Our new geopolitical base case is of an extended...

UBS Calls Brazil Election "Extremely Close" - Bolsonaro Win Would Cement LatAm's Political Shift Socialist Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's polling lead over right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro has eroded in recent weeks, leaving both statistically tied in UBS' latest runoff polling average.  Arend Kapteyn, UBS' global head of economics and strategy research, described the upcoming election in early October as "extremely close" in a note to clients on Monday. Lula (Left); Bolsonaro (Right) Kapteyn's note today puts Bolsonaro at 50.4% in a hypothetical runoff, against 49.6% for Lula, adding that the narrowing...