The Reckoning Of 2028: Civilization's Ledger Is Bleeding Red

Ugly 10Y Auction: Foreign Demand Plummets, Directs Soar, Resulting In Biggest Tail Since February After a subpar 3Y auction on Monday, today's 10Y auction - which followed another hot CPI print - was downright ugly.Let's start at the top: the high yield of today's auction was 5.020%, which hit just as yields hit their peak for the day, with the 10Y rising more than 10bps above 5.0% for the first time in weeks. Still, this was a drop from last month's 5.317% (which was the highest in over 2 decades),...

Crisis Comes Closer: Social Security's Projected Insolvency Moved A Year Earlier Continuing a trend of increasingly dismal projections, Social Security's trustees have revised their prediction of when the massive benefit program's trust fund will run out of money, moving it to the fourth quarter of 2032, sooner than last year's projection that the money will run out in 2033. They attributed most of the the change to declining fertility rates and immigration, along with tax reductions included in Trump's 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).  When the trust fund runs...