Israel Continues to Present Lebanon as a Long-Term War as Attacks Continues

Oil Tumbles, Stocks Surges As Israeli TV Reports Imminent 'One Month Ceasefire' Announcement Summary US seeks a one-month ceasefire with a framework to end the war, according to Israel Channel 12 reports WSJ, Fox reporting 3,000 elite Army Airborne soldiers to be ordered to Middle East. Axios says US awaits Iran response to proposed Thursday peace talks. Trump says Iran has been destroyed "militarily".  Backchannel diplomacy vs skepticism: Abbas Araghchi reportedly signaled openness to negotiations with the US via envoy Steve Witkoff, but Israel has appeared cool on deal prospects or offramp. Heavy exchange of fire and...

Several US-allied nations have already publicly declined President Trump’s request for them to send warships to the Middle East to help open the Strait of Hormuz, which is not being tightly controlled by the Iranian military. “What does … Donald Trump expect a handful or two handfuls of European frigates to ​do in the Strait […]

FOMC Minutes Tilt Hawkish: 'Inflation Risks Skewed To The Upside' Due To AI While today's market moves (post-Bessent's OpTwist bailout) are changing things rapidly, since the last FOMC meeting, on July 19th, where Warsh held rates (hawkishly) unchanged (in the biggest surprise to market expectations in decades) amid multiple dissents, gold, bitcoin, and oil have outperformed, the dollar and bonds have lagged, with stocks solidly green in the middle... And rate-hike expectations have plunged, erasing the hawkish shift since Warsh's first Fed meeting (thanks mostly to weak macro since the meeting)... With...