Oil Markets Price In An Iran Deal That Does Not Exist Yet

Thursday marked 300 days since October 10, 2025, the day the ceasefire was supposed to go into effect in Gaza, but the Israeli military has continued constant violations, and, according to the UN’s child relief agency UNICEF, has killed at least 300 children in that time, or one per day. “A ceasefire that leaves an […]

We Cannot Trust The CDC Estimates Of Flu Vaccine Effectiveness Authored by Eyal Shahar via The Brownstone Institute, Each year the CDC publishes an estimate of the effectiveness of the flu vaccine in the previous flu season. Recently, the NIH director criticized the test-negative design from which the estimates are derived. He was right. The basic premise of the design is a two-edged sword: on the one hand, restricting the sample to people who sought medical care might reduce confounding by healthcare-seeking behavior; on the other hand, that restriction might add...

Futures Slide But Off Session Lows As Oil Spikes Above $100 Ahead Of Trump's 10am Hormuz Blockade Stock futures are lower, but off their worst levels of the session, as Brent crude surged 7% to over $102 after Trump ordered a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to take place at 10am ET. The moves look relatively contained given the breakdown of US-Iran talks, with strategists saying this is a moment to buy the dip. Goldman Sachs is kicking off the earnings season shortly with earnings that missed on FICC revenue, sending the stock...