Iran War 3.0: Where Did This All Go Wrong?

Rate-Hike Odds Soar Despite Lowest Core Consumer Price Inflation Since 2021 Following fuel-driven jump in Producer Prices, consensus was for a concomitant jump MoM in Consumer prices this morning, after last month's decline as energy prices have rebounded (though we warned that amid all the interventionist-y chatter, nothing would surprise us less than 'cool' print to offset the PPI scare). And analysts were right with headline CPI rising 0.4% MoM (exactly as expected) - biggest MoM since May - but prices rose 3.5% YoY (in line with expectations and flat to...

Israeli officials have been saying they intended to apply a Gaza Strip model to the invasion of Lebanon, but the extent of the destruction inflicted on the southern part of Lebanon in the first month and a half of the war is even bigger than initially feared. New reports from the BBC are that they’ve […]

5Y Auction Tails Despite Jump In Foreign Demand, Yields Hit Session High After a mediocre 2Y auction to start the week's coupon issuance this morning, moments ago the Treasury sold 5Y notes in another average auction. The sale of $70BN in 5 Year paper stopped at a high yield of 3.955%, down fractionally from 3.980% last month, and tailing the When Issued 3.950% by 0.5bps. This was an improvement from last month's 1.4bps tail, but more concerningly this was the 11th tail in a row for 5Y issues. The bid to cover...