IEA Warns Escalation In US-Iran Hostilities Could Upend Oil Surplus Forecast

Rubio: Diplomacy Will Be Rendered 'Impossible' If Iran Enacts Hormuz Toll System Iran has been seeking to significantly expand the area around the Strait of Hormuz over which it claims military control by this week advancing the newly-created government agency of the "Persian Gulf Strait Authority". The agency quickly published a map proclaiming "Iranian armed forces oversight" across more than 22,000 sq km (8,800 sq miles) of the Hormuz waterway. Now, all transit through the strait "requires coordination with and authorization from the Persian Gulf Strait Authority" - the new entity announced. Of...

Rumors persist that the Trump administration is actively seeking an off-ramp to the escalating conflict with Iran. The prevailing assumption within certain circles of the White House is that Tehran, having sustained serious damage from recent military strikes, would welcome a cessation of hostilities. This calculation, however, rests on a dangerous misreading of Iranian resolve, […]

Food Supply Alert: Ukraine Grain Exports Collapse As Black Sea Attacks Choke Global Shipments Upward momentum in agricultural prices, as tracked by the Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index, should be ringing inflationary alarm bells. The breakout comes just one week after JPMorgan analyst Nora Szentivanyi warned that the next global food crisis could materialize as early as next year. Multiple shocks are converging all at once across the global food complex, including continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, rising El Niño risks, and adverse weather across the US agricultural belt. This...