Did Trump Make the Right Deal With Iran? Curt Mills vs. Will Chamberlain Debate Tonight

Treasury Refunding: No Changes To Auction Sizes; Bessent Keeps "At Least" In Forward Guidance In our preview to this morning's Quarterly Refunding Statement, we said that we do not expect major changes and that, at most, the treasury might adjust its statement language to soften the forward guidance on possibly futures increase in coupon auction sizes with one likely change would be dropping “at least” while retaining the expectation for unchanged coupon sizes over “the next several quarters” (recall Deutsche Bank said it expects nominal coupon increases beginning in February 2027).  Overnight, JPMorgan agreed,...

Rare Local Ceasefire In Ukraine At Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant For Urgent Repairs The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed in a Friday announcement that a local ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia is in effect around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to urgently allow crews to restore the facility's backup power supply. In a local, mutual agreement along the front lines, the UN nuclear watchdog confirmed both sides agreed to halt fighting in the area to enable work on the damaged line. This is a rare ceasefire moment, even if very localized...

Copper Hits All-Time-High As Physical Economy Reprices Scarcity Copper futures in London reached a record high on Tuesday as expectations of US tariffs drew record volumes from the seaborne market into US warehouses, tightening availability elsewhere despite subdued demand. As we highlighted on Monday, deteriorating conditions across global mining operations are adding to supply woes. Benchmark three-month futures on the LME gained nearly 1% to reach $14,533 a ton, exceeding January's peak before trimming some of those gains. Dr. Copper is breaking out...but this isn’t mainly a growth signal. Tariffs sparked the squeeze....