Super El Nino: Famine Follows War?

Three Levers China Is Pulling To Weather Gulf Energy Shock; How Long Can Beijing Hold Out? The new troubling development is that maritime chokepoint chaos spread overnight from the Strait of Hormuz to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, where Iran-backed Houthis targeted two Saudi Arabian tankers. The attacks expose yet another maritime chokepoint and risk further physical market tightening, forcing traders to price a larger war-risk premium into Brent crude futures and pushing the benchmark above $100 a barrel Thursday morning. Oil headed to Asia generally does not flow through both chokepoints....

Tanker Armada Races For Hormuz After Iran Says Strait Is Open An armada of at least eight oil tankers set off toward the Strait of Hormuz immediately after Iran’s foreign minister said the vital waterway was fully open to shipping. Five of the carriers, which had been anchored north of Dubai, were moving into the waterway on Friday afternoon, soon after Iran’s foreign minister said it was completely open, vessel tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show. Three more, which were waiting about 70 miles west, have also begun moving in the direction of...

ECB Preview: First Rate Hike Since 2023 Markets expect the ECB to hike by 25bps, the first rate hike since 2023, but do not look for explicit guidance on the path ahead, with the Council likely pledging in the statement to set monetary policy in a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting fashion. Lagarde is likely to highlight that tightening is appropriate, for example, by repeating that the energy shock requires “some measured adjustment” in the policy stance. Goldman does not expect her to provide any specific guidance on next steps but look...