The Consumer Sentiment Disconnect From Economic Reality

The US military confirmed that a P-8A Poseidon anti-submarine patrol aircraft transited the Taiwan Strait. China says it monitored the Navy’s plane.  “By operating within the Taiwan Strait in accordance with international law, the United States upholds the navigational rights and freedoms of all nations,” a statement from the 7th Fleet said, adding that the […]

A New Iran (Military?) Base Case By Michael Every of Rabobank Our central assumption for the Iran war had been that by end the third week of April at latest, the Iranian regime faction willing to make a deal in line with Trump’s tweets would have asserted itself over those who won’t, Hormuz would slowly reopen, and energy markets gradually normalise. As neither the Iranian nor US negotiating teams traveled to Pakistan for the second round of peace talks yesterday, that cannot happen. Our new geopolitical base case is of an extended...

"Planet's Strongest Heat Dome" To Bake America's Heartland What some meteorologists are calling the "planet's strongest heat dome" is set to build over America's heartland next week. Triple-digit temperatures are expected across the northern Plains, with dangerous heat pushing eastward into parts of the Mid-Atlantic. "The planet's strongest heat dome will develop over the Intermountain West and Plains into next week," meteorologists Ben Noll wrote on X, adding, "This will produce rare levels of heat up to around 110 degrees in Idaho, Wyoming, Montana and the Dakotas. On Sunday, Billings, Montana,...