Multiple Polls Show Warning Signs For Democrats In Upcoming Midterms

Fed Remains On Hold (As Expected) Amid 'Uncertain Implications' Of War With Iran Tl;dr: Rates on hold as expected with a hawkish tilt to 'uncertainty' around the Iran war clouding the outlook. The Dot-Plot showed no real change (7 on hold, 12 at least 1 cut in 2026) but inflation expectations surged in the SEP. *  *  * A lot - and we mean a lot - has happened since the last FOMC meeting (Jan 28th). Oil is up 54% since the last FOMC meeting, bitcoin has tumbled. Gold and stocks are also...

We Want One Solution, But One Solution Can't Solve Our Polycrisis Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via Substack, Whatever the problem, our minds seek one solution--preferably a simple one--to escape the trackless wilderness of complex, inter-connected problems. Problem-solving boils down to identifying the key problem and finding a fix that’s easy to understand and straightforward to apply. Our minds rebel when confronted with polycrisis, a knotted mess of inter-connected problems, and so we apply solutions we already have in hand. As I explained in previous Musings, this leads us to modify our...

We now can see more clearly the Trump Administration’s chosen path: In the wake of Davos and Munich, we have some light – both on Trump’s towering ambitions, and the means by which he hopes to achieve them. It may nonetheless be too late. Past policies shackle America’s future. Russia acting alone may not be […]