Silt, Anchovies, And Economic Disaster

Aluminum Supply Shock: Top Gulf Producer Halts Operations After Iran Strike, Price To Spike Over the weekend, both Emirates Global Aluminum (EGA) - the largest aluminum producers in the Gulf - and Aluminium Bahrain (ALBA) reported drone attacks damaging smelting facilities after hits on Iranian steel infrastructure last week. Neither company (at the time) confirmed whether supply will be impacted, but this morning the worst case appears to be confirmed with Reuters reporting that according to a Wednesday note by consultancy Wood Mackenzie "EGA's Al Taweelah facility in the United Arab Emirates halted...

The Market Is Grappling With Two Major Unknowns By Stefan Koopman, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank President Trump began this week’s Monday‑morning jawboning ahead of schedule. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday evening as he returned to Washington DC, he talked up the negotiations with Iran, said that Iran’s new leadership already constitutes “regime change” and praised the “deal” with Iranian speaker Ghalibaf to allow up to 20 Pakistan-flagged oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian (!) escort. Markets have already brushed aside Trump’s comments,...