Exodus From Lebanon’s Tyre as Israel Orders Locals Out of Christian Quarter

The Fed Owns Over 50% Of All Bonds Maturing Between 10 And 15 Years From Now Submitted by Peter Tchir of Academy Securities Treasuries, Treaties, and Treatises Let’s start with Treasuries. We laid out the approach we would take if we were Warsh last weekend in Warsh’s Mark Antony Moment (a play on coming to “bury” inflation, yet having quite the opposite effect, at least in terms of interest rate policy).  After Bessent’s “attempt” to drive bond yields lower, we analyzed the possibilities in Treasury, Treasuries, The Fed, and Iran. The primary focus...

Putin Presents Victory Day Truce In Ukraine During 90-Minute Trump Call With things in the Persian Gulf and the Iran War 'stuck'... it's apparently time to pivot back to that other 'stuck' war, in Ukraine. President Trump on Wednesday spoke over the phone with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, with the call reportedly lasting an impressive 1.5+ hours, and the talk centered on finding ways forward both with the Iran and Ukraine conflicts. The most important item to emerge was that Putin reportedly proposed declaring a ceasefire in Ukraine on May 9,...

Futures Rise As Oil Drops, Bond Selling Slows, Meta Tumbles And Microsoft Soars Futures rebound (for now) following yesterday’s Fed-induced meltdown as the market is clearly questioning Warsh’s credibility and potential usage of non-standard tools to fight inflation, pushing the yield curve to twist steeper and sending 30Y yields to 2 decade highs (last at 5.22%). Pre-mkt, the yield curve is seeing further twist-steepening with 10s and 30s up 1 and 3bp with 2s down 1bp. USD deterioration continues following its worst day in 4 weeks. Commodities are so confused,...