Iran Fires Missiles At Israel In First Since April, After IDF Airstrike On Beirut 'Crossed All Red Lines'

US Industrial Production Surged In April Despite record low consumer sentiment (if you believe UMich), this morning saw the Empire Fed survey show New York state factory activity expanded in May at the fastest pace in four years, and firms grew more optimistic about the outlook. That was followed by a much hotter than expected Industrial Production print (up 0.7% MoM vs +0.3% MoM exp and higher than the highest estimate) for April (and March's decline revised stronger), lifting annual growth up to +1.35% YoY... Source: Bloomberg April's gain for US industrial production was...

Fed Remains On Hold (As Expected) Amid 'Uncertain Implications' Of War With Iran Tl;dr: Rates on hold as expected with a hawkish tilt to 'uncertainty' around the Iran war clouding the outlook. The Dot-Plot showed no real change (7 on hold, 12 at least 1 cut in 2026) but inflation expectations surged in the SEP. *  *  * A lot - and we mean a lot - has happened since the last FOMC meeting (Jan 28th). Oil is up 54% since the last FOMC meeting, bitcoin has tumbled. Gold and stocks are also...

UBS Warns El Nino May Intensify Food Inflation Across Asia By now, readers have a clear understanding that the Gulf-driven energy shock is on course to collide with a potential super El Niño weather event, creating what could be a dangerous second-order shock to food supply chains around the world. The concern is that extreme heat and disrupted rainfall patterns could hit top agricultural growing belts, dent harvest output, and amplify existing supply stress. Even before those weather-driven impacts fully materialize, global food prices are already rising, suggesting that...