The News-to-Death Ratio Strikes Again

Another Poor, Tailing 20Y Auction: Is This One Of The Last Ones The week's lone coupon auction took place at 1pm and amid speculation of fireworks at the next Treasury Refunding Announcement in two weeks, when Citi is confident Bessent could announce the end of 20Y auction, it could very well be one of the last sales of 20Y paper for the US. The auction, as most recent 20Y sales, was mediocre: it stopped at a high yield of 5.469%, the highest on record for the tenor, up 49bps from September,...

Could The War In Ukraine Go Nuclear? Authored by J.B. Shurk via American Thinker, Too many influential voices are contemplating how to ‘win’ a nuclear war... With all eyes on the U.S. military buildup around Iran right now, the Russia-Ukraine War has been temporarily upstaged.  It will not play second fiddle for long.  The recent trilateral talks in Geneva involving the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and the United States have been unable to resolve a principal issue of disagreement: Ukraine’s martial-law-president Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s refusal to cede any land and Russia’s insistence that the Donbas region — specifically the four eastern territories that have...

Stalemate, Not Checkmate Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank Stalemate, not checkmate CIA Chief Ratcliffe’s 15-minute dialogue in Moscow was reportedly an elevator pitch warning Russia not to support Iran, and not to attack NATO. Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are at a dead end, and Ukrainian attacks on Russian economic infrastructure – including refineries and large online retailers – are increasingly putting pressure on President Putin. So, Moscow is preparing to escalate its assaults on the country. Russian military presence in Belarus is building up, which could reopen a...