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A New Iran (Military?) Base Case

A New Iran (Military?) Base Case By Michael Every of Rabobank Our central assumption for the Iran war had been that by end the third week of April at latest, the Iranian regime faction willing to make a deal in line with Trump’s tweets would have asserted itself over those who won’t, Hormuz would slowly reopen, and energy markets gradually normalise. As neither the Iranian nor US negotiating teams traveled to Pakistan for the second round of peace talks yesterday, that cannot happen. Our new geopolitical base case is of an extended...
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Apr 22, 2026 / Dave DeCamp
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