Article
A New Iran (Military?) Base Case
A New Iran (Military?) Base Case
By Michael Every of Rabobank
Our central assumption for the Iran war had been that by end the third week of April at latest, the Iranian regime faction willing to make a deal in line with Trump’s tweets would have asserted itself over those who won’t, Hormuz would slowly reopen, and energy markets gradually normalise.
As neither the Iranian nor US negotiating teams traveled to Pakistan for the second round of peace talks yesterday, that cannot happen. Our new geopolitical base case is of an extended...
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US equity futures jumped to a new all time high, reversing modest overnight losses, and oil tumbled to session lows on reports that Iran is sending a delegation to Pakistan today for talks, boosting hopes of ceasefire extension or more. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi is expected to arrive in Islamabad at 22:00 local time (1:00pm ET), the NY Post reports. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures rallied as much a 0.6% to a new all...
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