US Estimates Iran Has 70% of Pre-War Missile Stockpile, 60% of Launchers

Hormuz Fears Ease As Trump, Ghalibaf Virtually Sign US-Iran Deal, But Energy Flows Remain Months From Normal President Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf have virtually signed a peace deal to end the U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian ports, the general Gulf region, and begin 60 days of nuclear negotiations, according to CNN, citing US senior sources.  The text of the so-called memorandum of understanding, a 14-point document that should lead to a two-month extension of the ceasefire and the start of negotiations over...

Trump Eyes Boots On The Ground Along Hormuz Shoreline Several reports this week into Thursday say the Trump administration is quietly weighing a major escalation - potentially deploying thousands of additional troops to the Middle East as the White House struggles to map out an end game in Iran, according to Reuters. Interestingly, the Reuters report doesn't include the phrase that Trump strongly campaigned against: 'boots on the ground'. Instead the report framed things more simply as "US weighs military reinforcements as Iran war enters possible new phase." Are the American people being...

Average 2Y Auction Is A Big Improvement From Last Month's Debale In today's first of two coupon auctions (due to the week's truncated schedule as the Fed is on Wednesday), the US Treasury sold $69BN in 2 year paper in a mediocre auction, yet one which was notably stronger than last month's issuance. The sale stopped at a high yield of 3.812%, down from last month's 3.936% and tailing the When Issued 3.811% by 0.1bps. This however was a big improvement from last month's 1.8bps tail, which was the biggest since...