Things Get Interesting-er

Cracking Up And Joining Up By Michael Every of Rabobank Geopolitics is front and center, even in Argentina–England at the World Cup, where the contested Falklands/Malvinas, which could have oil reserves, saw jingoist 1980’s language. Yet it’s Hormuz, where 1980’s-style tanker wars are underway, that’s the penalty spot. The US is striking Iran again night and day, as Tehran warns of an “existential war”. Reports have Trump leaning towards expanding US military operations; others say what he’s been hitting widen his options for escalation; and Trump has stated Iran “will be defeated...

Rare Earth Stocks Pop After G7 Unveils Plan To Reduce Dependence On China For Critical Minerals Rare earth stocks spiked on Wednesday after G7 leaders agreed to strengthen coordination on critical minerals as they seek to reduce dependence on China-dominated supply chains, according to a new report from Reuters. Without naming China directly, the group set a goal of limiting reliance on any single external supplier of rare earths and permanent magnets to less than 60% by 2030, with a longer-term target of 50%. Reuters reports that to support that effort, the...

The Building Blocks Of A Global Stagflationary Shock Are Falling Into Place By Peter de Groot, Head of Macro Strategy at Rabobank The Inflation Regime That Doesn't Fade As we noted at the outset of the Gulf conflict, history rarely repeats – but it often rhymes. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly revealing a familiar pattern: the building blocks of a global stagflationary shock are falling into place. A closer look across inflation indicators in advanced economies shows a clear and consistent structure. The upstream impact has been immediate and...