Tax Freedom Day Underestimates How Long You Work For The Government

Futures, Bonds Surge On Optimism War May End, Oil Tumbles Below $100 Futures and bonds jump and oil fell, sending Brent briefly below $100 a barrel, as the de-escalation/technical/macro led relief rally continues on hopes of the Middle East conflict reaching an end soon  after Donald Trump said he expects the war in Iran to end in two to three weeks, and indicated that it was possible that Iran could still reach a deal with the US during that timeframe. Trump has a national address tonight at 9pm ET to...

Schrodinger's Strait, Schrodinger's Market By Benjamin Picton, Senior Market Strategist at Rabobank Erwin Schrodinger famously proposed a thought experiment to illustrate the apparent absurdity of quantum mechanics when applied to the macroscopic world. In the theoretical experiment, Schrodinger’s eponymous cat, contained in a box with a radioactive atom, a Geiger counter and a vial of poison, exists in a state of superposition whereby it is simultaneously both alive and dead until the box is opened. And so it is with the Strait of Hormuz, which exists in a state of both openness...

FOMC Minutes Signal Fed Saw "Dual Sided" Risks From Iran War Since the last FOMC meeting (March 18th), a lot has happened (war, more war, and now less war), and rate-change expectations hawkishly surged, then dovishly normalized today... And given the last 24 hours, perhaps this information is more useful now, as we return to macro-fundamentals from geopolitical chaos running markets. The minutes, released three weeks after the meeting, underscore the Fed's dilemma as it seeks to fill its congressional mandates of low inflation and maximum employment. Fed officials wrestled with starkly differing...