Turns Out the Elites Like the Administrative State Better than Democracy

The Iranian military on Thursday warned that the continued presence of US manned and unmanned aircraft over the Strait of Hormuz “has caused insecurity in this waterway and will threaten regional security” as the US has maintained its military buildup and heightened activity in the region. “The Strait of Hormuz is not a playground for […]

US PMIs Signal Stagflation Fears Accelerating As War Started With 'hard' US macro data having drifted weaker all year, consensus was expecting only a modest decline in S&P Global's US Composite index in preliminary March data (that presumably will be affected in some part by the war and its consequences). The consensus was right, but the picture was mixed with Manufacturing PMI surprising to the upside (52.4 vs 51.5 exp vs 51.6 prior) - highest since Oct 2025. Services PMI, on the other hand, disappointed, falling to the lowest since April 2025... Source: Bloomberg Overall,...

March Jobs Shocker: Payrolls Soar By 178K Most Since 2024, Blowing Away All Estimates; Unemployment Rate Drops We titled our nonfarm payroll preview post "a substantial bounce" and boy were we right: with consensus expecting a material rebound from February's negative print (which was revised as usual worse, from -92K to -133K), what the BLS reported instead was a huge beat to expectations of a 65K increase, with March jobs reportedly rising by 178K, the biggest increase since December 2024. The number was driven entirely by a surge in private workers...