A Pause To Negotiate A Deal? Some Caveats...

Russia Pounded By Biggest Ukrainian Drone Swarm Since January Ahead Of Geneva Talks Russia's Defense Ministry on Tuesday is reporting an overnight and early morning attack which marked the largest drone assault from Ukraine since early January. Russian air defenses shot down more than 150 Ukrainian drones in the attack which included hundreds of UAVs sent in total, as officials from both sides are imminently expected meet in Switzerland for another round of peace talks. via Reuters According to the ministry, 79 drones were intercepted over the Black Sea and the Sea of...

Senior Iranian Official Involved In Reaching Out To Vance Severely Wounded In Airstrike A top Iranian official who was involved in diplomatic outreach and indirect talks or messaging with the United States and Pakistani mediators was reportedly critically wounded in a US-Israeli strike. Kamal Kharazi, an 81-year-old senior adviser to Tehran and former foreign minister, lost his wife in the Wednesday strike on his home, state media has said. Kharazi chairs Iran's Strategic Council on Foreign Relations and has been viewed as a potential backchannel negotiator involving Islamabad, but now he's...

A New Iran (Military?) Base Case By Michael Every of Rabobank Our central assumption for the Iran war had been that by end the third week of April at latest, the Iranian regime faction willing to make a deal in line with Trump’s tweets would have asserted itself over those who won’t, Hormuz would slowly reopen, and energy markets gradually normalise. As neither the Iranian nor US negotiating teams traveled to Pakistan for the second round of peace talks yesterday, that cannot happen. Our new geopolitical base case is of an extended...