The Myth that Won't Die: "War is Good for the Economy"

No THAC0 Tuesday By Michael Every of Rabobank No TACO And No THAC0 The Global Daily yesterday noted lots of reasons to worry about this Gulf War 3 - today there are far more. However, as made clear since the start of this crisis, there is no way to say, “This is silly,” or to ‘go home’ and return to ‘normality’. Everyone in the war except the US *is* at home. Israel is targeting Iran’s leaders and PM Netanyahu says the country is only “over halfway” to its war goals, with no timeline...

U.S. Gov't Stake In Intel Is Now Worth ... Intel shares earlier jumped the most on record after the chipmaker delivered stronger-than-expected first-quarter results and issued a second-quarter forecast (read here) that beat Wall Street expectations. Earlier, Intel shares jumped as much as 28%, rocketing to a record high and eclipsing their Dot Com peak, as Wall Street analysts cheered the earnings report as evidence that the chipmaker’s turnaround is gaining traction. Citi analyst Atif Malik raised Intel to “Buy” from “Neutral,” with a $95 12-month price target, reflecting “improving AI-driven...

Core Durables Goods Surge For 12th Straight Month, Push Bond Yield Higher After a recent string of 'soft' survey data, this morning we get some 'hard' data and it was far stronger than expected. Preliminary headline durable goods orders for March rose 0.8% MoM (better than the 0.5% MoM exp), and the first increase after a three month decline to start the year (which was the first 3-month decline since Nov 2019). The increase took place despite continued weakness in aircraft orders manifesting as a 21.1% drop in nondefense aircraft and parts...