What Might Transatlantic Security Look Like If The US Leaves NATO?

Key Events This Week: CPI, PPI, Retail Sales Most traders may be out on the beach soaking up the mid-summer sun, but the relentless market and geopolitical newsflow continues for another week. Following Friday's payrolls report, which was far more dovish than hawkish at face value, attention this week will be firmly on July US CPI (Wednesday), which could go a long way towards further tipping the balance for September FOMC pricing. Futures pricing fell by around 10 percentage points immediately after the release on Friday, leaving the implied probability at...

Hormuz Oil Flows Rebound To Two-Thirds Prewar Level As Iran's Grip Erodes, Attacks 19 Ships Rory Johnston, a Toronto-based oil analyst and the founder of Commodity Context, an independent oil market research firm, wrote on X this weekend that oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to roughly two-thirds of prewar levels, driven by a surge in Saudi exports. This suggests that Tehran's leverage over the critical maritime chokepoint has eroded. "Hormuz oil flows can't possibly be above 13 MMbpd bc crude is over $100," Johnston wrote in the...

$100 Oil Is Solving Russia's Budget Problem Submitted by Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com Russia is getting an unexpected windfall from the war in the Middle East. The Kremlin’s oil revenues this month hit a four-year high as oil prices jumped to $100 per barrel amid the Iran war and the de facto closed Strait of Hormuz. Moscow expects so much additional revenues from the oil price spike that authorities are unlikely to downgrade Russia’s economic prospects, hold off on planned budget cuts, and even boost military spending on the war...