What Do Bonds Know That The Stock Market Doesn't?

Florida Passes Voter ID Bill Modeled After SAVE Act Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times, The Florida Legislature passed new election legislation modeled after President Donald Trump’s proposed SAVE America Act. House Bill 991, sponsored by state Rep. Jenna Persons-Mulicka, passed along party lines by a vote of 83 to 31. “We are the Election Integrity State!” Persons-Mulicka wrote on X after the vote. Sponsors of the bill moved the effective date to appease critics who feared the new identification requirements would discourage some voters from participating in midterm elections. The new...

The Market's Biggest Buyer May Be Disappearing Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance Yesterday, as part of laying out the two paths I can see the economy taking, I wrote that beneath the surface, the American consumer is tapped out. The average consumer - AKA the "retail investor" - has been a key in driving the stock market higher the past half decade. This morning, I noticed two reports that came out yesterday that add to the conclusion that this "retail investor" looks increasingly broke.  Yesterday The Wall Street Journal highlighted how rising prices and the highest...

US Retail Sales Jumped Most In 8 Months In February Bank of America's omniscient analysts forecast a very strong month for Retail Sales in February data (released today)... The actual print was +0.6% MoM (better than the 0.5% consensus, but less than BofA's forecast) comes after a revised higher 0.1% MoM decline in January (and December's nothingburger)... Source: Bloomberg That is the highest MoM rise since June 2025, and sales rose 3.7% YoY... Core Retail Sales (Ex Autos) rose 0.5% MoM (much better than expected) and Ex Autos and Gas also rose more than...