Iran War Hype, Gold, and the Fed’s Debt Bubble

We've Been Here Before By Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank Phil Connors has woken up to another instance of the same day. The US, Iran and Oman are said to be close to a new deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Axios reports that the US aims for an announcement today. So, Brent futures dropped to $79/barrel and equity markets rallied further, for the S&P 500 to set a fresh record high. The reported deal could just as well have been written a couple of weeks ago. Axios...

Manufacturing ISM Misses As Prices Surge Most Since April 2022, Employment Slides To Worst Print Of 2026 Amid the fog of war and fading 'hard' data, the final April S&P Global Manufacturing PMI printed 54.5, a small gain from the flash 54.0 print, and higher than the 52.3 February final print, although it came with a warning from Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “The surge in manufacturing activity in April is not the cause for cheer that at first glance it suggests. A key driving force behind...

Peacefire By Michael Every of Rabobank Welcome to the ‘peacefire’. After Israel and Iran were pulled back from the brink of new war by Trump on Monday, Wednesday morning Asia time saw him then strike Iran, and it fire at US bases in the Gulf, in response to Tehran downing a US Apache helicopter. It appears the US hit radar and missile/drone facilities around and in the Strait of Hormuz while Iran didn’t hit anything due to its missiles being intercepted. Looking at the areas the US struck in Iran last night,...