What Have You Learned In The Last 6 Hard Years?

Futures Slide, Oil Jumps After Trump Declares Iran Ceasefire Over Markets are on the backfoot this morning with equity futures and macro credit under pressure, bond yields spiking, the USD higher, and oil jumping after President Trump thrust geopolitical risks back into focus by declaring the ceasefire between the US and Iran to be over calling it “a waste of time” after the US launched strikes against Iran in response to attacks on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. As of 8:00am, S&P 500 futures slid 0.7% and Nasdaq futures slumped 1% dragged...

Solid 3Y Auction Stops Through Ahead Of Tomorrow's CPI Report Ahead of tomorrow's CPI report (which will come in tame thanks to continued housing disinflation), moments ago the US Treasury sold its first refunding auction, which came in very strong, stopping through the When Issued, and with above par metrics. Pricing at a high yield of 4.291%, up from 4.179% in July and the highest since Feb 2025, the auction stopped through the When Issued 4.296% by 0.5bps, the 2nd consecutive through auction. The bid to cover rose to 2.712, up...

Trump Suggests He May Not Sign Bipartisan Housing Affordability Bill Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times, President Donald Trump indicated on June 29 that he may not sign a bill that Congress passed that aims to make housing more affordable. Trump told reporters at the White House in Washington that he has not decided whether to sign the housing bill, the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, which Congress approved in a bipartisan fashion earlier in the month and targets permitting times, boosts financial incentives, and aims to make it...