The Sy Hersh effect: killing the messenger, ignoring the message

Oil Shocks & Recessionary Outcomes Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, After more than three decades of watching oil markets upend economies, one pattern keeps repeating: investors learn the wrong lessons from the last shock. The 1973 OPEC embargo taught us that geopolitical disruptions are temporary. That lesson then got everyone killed, financially speaking, in 1979. The 2003 Iraq War produced only a mild oil bump and no recession, so traders got comfortable. Then 2008 happened. Today, with Brent crude having spiked over 60% since U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran...

Key Events This Week: PPI, Industrial Production, Q1 Earnings, Iran War When it comes to the week ahead, clearly the Iran conflict will be the main focus, but there are a few other things to look out on the calendar. First, the Q1 earnings season will start to kick off, with this week’s releases including several US financials. DB's equity strategists have a full preview, and they argue that the bottom up-analyst consensus for S&P 500 earnings growth accelerating into the mid-teens (16%) is justified by a favorable macro environment (full...

Iran sent a proposal to the US that would bring the war to an end and allow ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian officials sent the new proposal to the US via Pakistan. Tehran’s deal includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for Washington ending its blockade and war against […]