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Trump Talk & 'Thucydides Trap' Threat Triggers Market Mayhem Overnight Traders are waking this morning in the US to some relative market mayhem and questioning what came first - the oil spike or the geopolitical angst - to trigger these moves as it appears the market finally remembered there's more going on in the world than trading 'short compute' demand to the moon... Oil prices are up significantly (WTI >$100)... Bond yields are breaking out everywhere (10Y 4.5%, 30Y UST 5.10%!, 30Y Gilt 5.82% - highest sine 1982)... Equity markets sharply lower overnight...

Will The Iran War Trigger A Dollar Crisis? The oil spike has moderated and markets are mellow for the time being, but could the long-term economic consequences of this war just be getting started? U.S. allies have shown a lackluster response after President Trump’s request for assistance in reopening the Strait of Hormuz — a corridor carrying roughly 20% of global oil supply — and this may spell a trend of what’s to come. What happens when oil-producing Gulf states have had enough of our/Israel’s foreign policy machinations and, as a...